I started the Temper-Tantrum Tuesday series because I know a lot of my viewers stop by to keep up to date with the Catspiracy. For those of you that do that I want to say, “Thank You” and stop by tomorrow for the Purrsday edition of the Catspiracy. I figured if I kept my rants confined to one specific day those people would know that if it’s Tuesday it would probably be a rant and would be forewarned.
I really only did it for myself so I could get things off my chest and not chase off my followers. So when I got a positive feedback I was pleasantly surprised. So I figured I could set aside Wednesday to follow up on my Tuesday rant with a closer look at the science and skeptism behind one of the topics I ranted about Tuesday.
Global Warming
That Global Warming is real and provable is very easy. Our Moon doesn’t have an Atmosphere and its average temperature is –67 degrees F, Earth has an Atmosphere and its average temperature is 57 degrees F. Our Atmosphere keeps our planet 124 degrees warmer, a good thing too I don’t have that many sweaters.
As the Sun’s rays hit the ground they warm it up. On the Moon this heat is radiated back into space. On Earth this heat has to warm the lower atmosphere and it travels upward into the upper atmosphere where it is radiated out into space. This process is called Global Warming.
Global temperatures are regulated by two things, how much heat the planet receives from the Sun and how much heat the upper atmosphere radiates back into space.
Most people accept this part of Global Warming.With that part of Global Warming agreed upon the next question is: Is this changing?
In the last century the average ground temperature has risen by 1.33 degrees F. So yes it is changing.
This change means that either the Sun is heating the planet more, or the atmosphere is radiating less heat back out into space.
Since the 1700’s the Sun has been getting brighter as part of its regular cycle. This means the heat that the Earth receives from the Sun has been increasing, however the temperature variation on Earth has been negligible for the first 200 years of that cycle. Even the most biased (but peer reviewed study) claims that the Sun can’t be responsible for more than 50% of the increase in the last century. Most scientists put that number at about 7%.
The other part of the equation is how much heat is being radiated back into space from the upper atmosphere?
The way to measure that is to look at the temperature of the upper atmosphere, the Stratosphere and the Thermosphere.
The Stratosphere has been cooling off in the last century by about 0.5 degrees C per decade. The temperature in the Thermosphere is best measured indirectly by looking at the overall atmospheric density (cooler air is more dense than warm air). The atmosphere has gotten 2% denser but the Thermosphere has gotten thinner. This means that the upper atmosphere is cooling, radiating less heat into space.
If the 1.33 degree F temperature rise over the last century was caused by the Sun these parts of the atmosphere would be heating up, not cooling down.
To determine what is causing less heat to escape scientists have looked at the reflective properties of different gases in our atmosphere. Some like sulfur dioxide reduce the amount of visible light hitting the ground while letting heat radiate through unhindered. Others like Carbon Dioxide and Methane let light through but don’t let the heat radiate back out. Oxygen and Nitrogen are fairly neutral.
Industrial activity has increased the amount of Carbon Dioxide on the planet. The strong correlation between the increasing temperatures in the lower atmosphere and increasing levels of Carbon Dioxide make it the prime gas to look at.
No, Not that Climate Model
Knowing that is there room for serious debate? Absolutely.
Climate experts in the 1960’s believed that the increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide in our atmosphere would cause a 2-6 degree F increase in ground temperatures over in the 21st century. The current models show a 3-5 degree rise is probable. Most likely there will be a 4-degree rise in temperature over the next century if nothing is done.
Where the there is a huge disagreement is with the Global Warming doomsayers that point out different feedback mechanisms in the atmosphere and claim the 4 degree rise will trigger scenarios that will cause a sudden jump of 18 degrees.
I’ve looked over these claims and the problem I have with them is the statistics used. They are using low probability events to trigger the next low probability event. So while I will admit that our changing the Earth’s climate on such a massive scale is bound to have some things happen that is hard to predict, the piling of low probability events on top of each other is scientifically dishonest.
A 4-degree temperature rise is bad, but will not wipe humans off the planet. Solutions to global warming have to be looked at in that light so we can work on permanent long-term change over the next century to reduce our harm to the planet. Not look at an improbable 18 degree rise and go into panic mode.
I would love some serious comments on this subject, especially from the extremes (Global Warming deniers or Global Warming doomsayers).
